Forgive Me

As a member of the reality-based community who hasn't quite gotten over being ignored during the run-up to Iraq (and for whom "I told you so" doesn't seem adequate salve) I hope you will forgive me for pointing out something that, to me, should be obvious.

The small amount of excess oil production capacity worldwide would provide an insufficient cushion if armed conflict disrupted supplies, oil experts say, and petroleum prices would skyrocket. Moreover, a wounded or angry Iran could easily retaliate against oil facilities from southern Iraq to the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices closed at a record $90.46 a barrel in New York yesterday as the Bush administration tightened U.S. financial sanctions on Iran over its alleged support for terrorism and issued new warnings about Tehran's nuclear program. Tension between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq, and fresh doubts about OPEC output levels also helped drive the price of oil up $3.36 a barrel, or 3.8 percent.

Although the Bush administration is not openly threatening a military strike against Iran, the president recently spoke of needing to avoid "World War III," and Vice President Cheney said that the United States would "not stand by" while Iran continued its nuclear program. "We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon," he said.

It should be pointed out that no public evidence suggests that Iran is on the verge of having a nuclear weapon, or having one between now and the end of the Bush administration. That does not seem to matter to the Vice President.